The Spring Forecast 2026 report outlines the UK’s economic outlook following recent fiscal and political developments, highlighting a complex environment shaped by policy changes, economic uncertainty, and wider geopolitical factors. UK GDP growth slowed during 2025, ending the year at 1.3%, with 2026 growth forecast at 1.1%, slightly below earlier projections.
Inflation was 3.0% in January 2026 but is expected to ease toward the Bank of England’s 2% target later in the year. Unemployment has risen to 5.2%, with younger people experiencing particular pressures in the labour market. Despite mixed economic indicators, government finances remain relatively stable, supported by increased fiscal headroom and strong tax receipts. Borrowing is still projected to remain high but has improved slightly compared with earlier estimates.
The report also notes that external factors, including the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher oil prices, could continue to influence the economic outlook in the months ahead.
Read the full report to see how the 2026 Spring Forecast could impact you and your finances here.